FOCUS reference scenarios

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The FOCUS reference scenarios for planning of "Security Research 2035" to support security roles of the "EU 2035" are based on horizon scanning, study work and foresight conducted in the FOCUS project.

As described in Deliverable 8.1, the following five reference scenarios were derived by an analytical procedure from a larger scenario portfolio for European "Security Research 2035".

The reference scenarios provide various insights into what future European Security Research may require. This includes respect for human and societal needs, citizens being the ultimate end users of Security Research. The reference scenarios also assume that security missions of the “EU 2035” will increasingly stretch along the internal-external security continuum and that full integration of emergency management and civil protection within the scope of Security Research will be vital, along with its elevation to European level. Coordinated investment in preparedness is expected to play a major role here.


Reference scenario "Security Research 2035" to support the "EU 2035" as a comprehensive security provider Main thematic aspect (based on FOCUS five "Big Themes") Related chapter on FOCUS IT-based Knowledge Platform Cross-cutting aspects (common to all reference scenarios)

"No Land is an Island": A protected EU homeland with external responsibilities

Future concept of the comprehensive approach and future concept of EU homeland security Chapter 1

"Policy Drives All in a Have, Have-Not World": Security research on natural disasters and the global environment

Natural disasters and the global environment – EU civil protection and emergency management Chapter 2

"Security as Societal Science": Critical infrastructure and supply chain research driven by societal factors

Critical infrastructure and supply chain protection Chapter 3

"Borderless Threats = Mission Creep": The EU’s forced march toward a stronger Common Security and Defence Policy

EU as a global actor Chapter 4

"Inside Out": Inward coherence and governance opens the door to external policy

EU internal framework (as EU role determinant) Chapter 5

Main reference scenario drivers


FOCUS conclusions for future Security Research
FOCUS roadmap proposal for the planning of "Security Research 2035"


Transversal Security Research fields, their disciplines, and needed expertise


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FOCUS is co-funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme, theme "security", call FP7-SEC-2010-1, work programme topic 6.3-2 "Fore sighting the contribution of security research to meet the future EU roles". The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 261633. This wiki reflects only the authors' views and the Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.



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