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FOCUS tool repertory

As part of the FOCUS Toolbox, a repertory of scenario foresight methods and tools was established during the project for use in the development of the FOCUS Big Theme scenarios as well as of the reference scenarios. Identified relevant tools and method guides (either developed or used by FOCUS) are listed in the following table, which is updated on a regular basis. The emphasis is on tools and method guides for the facilitation of participatory strategic foresight and for the integration of data and information gained from participatory foresight exercises.

 

Name of tool Link Definition  Data used/type of analysis performed
FOCUS scenario foresight process descriptions http://www.focusproject.eu/web/focus/downloads/-/document_library_display/1QpQ/view/20998 Syllabus of scenario foresight methods with short descriptions and comments on their usability State of the art collection of practical methods for scenario foresight

FOCUS scenario and glossary wikis

(Component of the FOCUS IT-based Knowledge Platform)

http://www.focusproject.eu/knowledgeplatform/workbench/controller.do?action=navigation&id=Scenario%20and%20Glossary%20Wikis Wiki-based collection of scenario descriptions, information, data and proofs of concept Dynamic evolving conceptual base for scenario-based planning of security research

FOCUS scenario foresight process stepper

(Component of the FOCUS IT-based Knowledge Platform)

http://www.focusproject.eu/knowledgeplatform/processstepperPROMOTE Knowledge management facility for reproduction, continuation and expansion of FOCUS foresight Guidance through the FOCUS scenario knowledge development and integration process

FOCUS scenario foresight questionnaire repository, with graphical models and questionnaire model file

(Component of the FOCUS IT-based Knowledge Platform)

http://www.focusproject.eu/knowledgeplatform/workbench/controller.do?action=navigation&id=Questionnaire%20Repository FOCUS scenario questionnaire repository for multiple uses beyond the project Provision of variably configurable scenario foresight questionnaire items
PRIME - Preference Rations In Multiattribute Evaluation http://www.sal.hut.fi/Downloadables/PrimeDecisions.exe Allows to do interval-valued ratio statements in the specification of preferences; supports several decision rules for the development of recommendations Multiple criteria decision making
Bayesian Networks http://www.cs.ubc.ca/~murphyk/Bayes/bnsoft.html Collection of various software packages for graphical models / Bayesian Networks  
Extreme Value Theory:

Compilation of software for Extreme Value Analysis
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/~ericg/softextreme.php Overview of statistical software that provides a large number of statistical procedures and diagnostic tools supporting the statistical verification of forecast  
D-Sight Decision Making Software
(professional software with available free trial version)
http://www.d-sight.com "D-Sight is a dedicated decision support system. It provides a framework allowing decision makers to evaluate different alternatives against multiple criteria and identify the best solution. The built-in tools support the decision making process allowing users to save time, be more efficient and interact easily with the stakeholders." "D-Sight allows to structure your problem in a natural way. Similar criteria can be grouped into categories and weighted accordingly."

"D-Sight comes with a set of tools to perform sensitivity analysis. This allows to discuss alternative scenarios more easily and to increase the confidence in the solution found."
Scenario Toolkit / Scenario Manager http://scentools.sourceforge.net/scenmanager.html Scenario Manager is a tool for organizing information about scenarios Individual or collaborative scenario development, and to distribute scenarios
Scenario Toolkit / Bayes Scenario Parameters http://scentools.sourceforge.net/bsp.html The Bayes Scenario Parameter generator is a tool for taking qualitative statements about scenario parameter values and turning them into quantitative values The underlying algorithm uses Bayesian statistics
Scenario Toolkit / Driving Force http://scentools.sourceforge.net/drivingforce.html Driving Force is an interactive organizer for brainstorming driving forces and aligning them along the axes of "Impact" and "Uncertainty" Brainstrorming to identify and classify driving forces
European Foresight,
Joint Research Centre,
European Commission
http://forera.jrc.ec.europa.eu Foresight provides a framework for a group of people concerned with common issues at stake (e.g. future of EU manufacturing, R&D and innovation priorities, transport and mobility, etc.) to jointly think about the future in a structured and constructive way
 
Collects tools to support participants (i.e. policy makers, experts and other stakeholders) to develop visions of the future and pathways towards these visions
Methodology: methodological frameworks and methods http://www.foresight-platform.eu/community/foresightguide/practicing-foresight-taking-stock-and-advancing-knowledge/how/methodology Set and sequence of methods  to generate, elicit, structure, synthesise and capture the information at different stages of the process Integration of information
Scenario Narratives http://scenariosforsustainability.org/tools_kit.php#scennarr   "There are also software tools for brainstorming and for organizing text in complex projects, such as the KeyNote editor, which allows text to be organized on different tabs and in a tree structure, and the FreeMind mind-mapping program."
 
Qualitative Modelling http://scenariosforsustainability.org/tools_kit.ph

Several software tools (such as Vensim) allow users to edit causal loop diagrams (as well as other diagrammatic models, such as stock-and-flow diagrams)

The modeller can then enter parameters and initial values so that the qualitative diagram becomes a quantitative model

Diagrammic expression of models
Quantitative Modeling http://scenariosforsustainability.org/tools_kit.php

Free software tools include:

  • Vensim PLE
  • IPAT-S modeling language
  • International Futures (IFs)
  • NetLogo
  • Maxima package
  • Scilab
 
Indicators http://scenariosforsustainability.org/tools_kit.php

Scenarios are evaluated by identifying indicators that show the progress of the scenario over time

"The open-source Scenario Data Selector can be used to publish the data on the web using an interactive data browser, and he Dashboard of Sustainability can generate HTML files for posting on the web."
Illustrative Scenario Tool http://www.eutransportghg2050.eu/cms/assets/EU-Transport-GHG-2050-Illustrative-scenarios-tool-Meeting-6-MM-v2.pdf

Scope:

  • EU27
  • All major transport modes
     
  • Focuses on 2020 to 2050 (calculates from 2010 for completeness)
     

Users define the effects of illustrative scenarios in "Policy Scenarios"

Scenarios can have several "versions" (variants)

The results can be quickly displayed, compared and analysed

MS Excel based
Each policy option has inputs and outputs for each of the 13 modes
Scenario 360 decision tools http://placeways.com/support/s360webhelp4-1/Decision_Tools/About_Scenario_360_decision_tools.htm

Tools for setting up particular types of analysis by providing inputs and making choices

"Wizards" provide step-by-step procedures for setting up rules and data to be used

 
Doing Foresight http://http://www.doingforesight.org Supports future oriented policy analysis by helping examine problems at stake  and choose aims, as well as evaluate the chosen activities

Facilitation of choice of indicators and foresight methods, as well as assessment of the impact of the foresight process, by an online instrument

Free Online Surveys http://freeonlinesurveys.com Questionnaires can be designed to use with multiple choice, open and specific questions/items. Questionnaire construction is simple and the questionnaires are displayed in a clearly structured way. Additional information, hyperlinks and pictures can be included in the questionnaires. Questionnaire data are displayed per input region and can be exported to a spreadsheet
Wikispaces http://www.freewikispaces.com Wiki platform to start own projects, such as collaborative scenario description development. Internal and external cross-linking of scenario information, addition of user comments to scenario descriptions, version chronologies of scenario descriptions

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