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A black swan is an Improbable event that has three principal characteristics: unpredictability (due to lack of imagination of the “impossible” and scientifically not computable probability); crucial and severe impact; and people’s endeavour for explanation after their occurrence. Examples are the rapid propagation of the internet, the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the financial collapse in 2008. The rare occurrence affects the collective society to a larger extent than regular events.
- Taleb, N.N.: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. London: Penguin Books, 2008.